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2024 German government crisis

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2024 German government crisis
Olaf Scholz (SPD), Chancellor of Germany and leader of the coalition since 2021
DateSince November 6, 2024 (2024-11-06) (ongoing)
TypePolitical crisis
CauseDisagreements over economic policies resulting in the dismissal of finance minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner
ParticipantsScholz cabinet
OutcomeTwo-party minority government and snap election

On 6 November 2024, Olaf Scholz, the incumbent chancellor of Germany, announced the dismissal of Christian Lindner, the then-finance minister and leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), from his cabinet.[1] This occurred following recent disputes in the three-party coalition government over the country's economic policies and ongoing tensions within the coalition. Lindner's dismissal caused the collapse of the coalition and the FDP moved into the opposition, leaving a two-party minority government between SPD and The Greens.

An early 2025 federal election is possible,[2] with the parties having agreed on a tentative date of 23 February 2025.[3] A formal vote of confidence in the ruling government is to predate the election.[4]

Background

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See also: List of participants in the Scholz cabinet coalition negotiations
The traffic light coalition between SPD, The Greens, and FDP was a first in German history.

The 2021 German federal election resulted in the Social Democratic Party (SPD) emerging as the strongest party in the Bundestag, with 25.71% of the vote (206 seats out of 736). The SPD reached an agreement to form a ruling coalition with The Greens (118 seats) and the FDP (91 seats), with SPD leader Olaf Scholz as federal chancellor. The resulting Scholz cabinet was appointed in December 2021. This marked the first time the governing coalition in the Bundestag was a traffic light coalition (Ampelkoalition), named after the colours associated with the three parties: red (SPD), yellow (FDP) and green (Greens).

With SPD and The Greens being considered centre-left and FDP economically liberal, the ideological differences between the three parties led to challenges in the newly formed government from the start.[5][6] This showed itself in disagreements in areas such as budget planning, environmentalism or social services, often resulting in gridlocks.[6] Additionally, the country entered an economic crisis while under leadership of the traffic light coalition, leading to falling approval ratings.[6]

In November 2023, Germany's Federal Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) declared parts of the government's budget policy unconstitutional. Scholz's cabinet had reallocated unspent debt proceeds – originally designated to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic – to its climate action budget. The court ruling left the budget €60 billion short.[6] The following re-allocation of already planned funds resulted in the 2023–2024 German farmers' protests and further decreased the public perception of the already unpopular government.[6][7][8]

In September 2024, regional elections in several states in eastern Germany showed disastrous results for the ruling parties while the opposition Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and left-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) gained large numbers of voters.[9][10]

In October 2024, Robert Habeck, Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action and member of The Greens, proposed a debt-financed fund to promote investment by companies in order to fill the gap in the government's budget.[11] The plan would be irreconcilable with Germany's debt brake (Schuldenbremse), which limits annual structural deficits to 0.35% of GDP. On 1 November 2024, Lindner issued an 18-page policy paper, calling for a new economic policy for the coalition.[12] Lindner called for halting new regulations, introducing new tax cuts, and cutting public spending, including on action against climate change, in order to solve the country's economic crisis.[13]

Lindner's paper was deemed a "provocation" by The Greens and SPD, who considered his positions incompatible with the coalition agreement.[11] This led to crisis talks in the Chancellery over the continued existence of the coalition, which culminated in a session of coalition representatives, including Scholz, Habeck and Lindner meeting on 6 November.[11]

Dismissal of Lindner

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Christian Lindner (FDP), former German Minister of Finance and coalition partner of Scholz's cabinet

On the night of 6 November, shortly after talks with Lindner and Habeck, Scholz announced he would ask Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the president of Germany, to dismiss Lindner from his position as finance minister. According to the German Constitution, only the president can dismiss federal ministers from their post, which in the past generally has been done by request from the chancellor.

In his statement, Scholz said he saw himself forced to this measure to prevent damage to the country and to uphold the government's capacity to act. He stated he had made an offer to Lindner earlier that day as to how the gap in the budget could be filled, which Lindner had failed to accept.[14]

Scholz also announced his intention to call for a vote of confidence in his government on 15 January 2025, potentially enabling an early 2025 federal election.[4] Should the chancellor not win the confidence of the majority of the Bundestag in the vote, he would be able to request the president to dissolve the Bundestag (Article 68 of the constitution). The president would then have 21 days to consider the request; if he agreed to the dissolution, a snap election would be held within 60 days of the dissolution date.

On 7 November, President Steinmeier officially dismissed Lindner and swore in his successor, Jörg Kukies (SPD), as requested by Scholz. As Kukies was formerly an investment banker at Goldman Sachs, his appointment was criticised by some politicians, including members of Scholz's own Social Democratic Party as well as Sahra Wagenknecht, leader of the left-populist BSW.[15]

In response to Lindner's dismissal, the FDP ministers Marco Buschmann and Bettina Stark-Watzinger resigned.[16] Minister for Transport Volker Wissing announced he would leave the FDP to remain in his post, also taking over Buschmann's position as Minister of Justice in a dual mandate.[17] Similarly, Stark-Watzinger's position as Minister of Education and Research was taken over by Cem Özdemir, who is the current Minister for Food and Agriculture. This effectively moved the FDP into the opposition, rendering the current coalition a two-party minority government between the SPD and The Greens.

On 8 November, Wissing's website became victim of a hostile takeover, after which the homepage displayed FDP advertisements.[18]

Further developments

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Early federal election

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Scholz' plan for a vote of confidence on 15 January 2025 would require a possible snap federal election in early April at the latest, per the constitution. Several opposition parties called for a vote of confidence in November 2024, much sooner than the date proposed by Scholz. Supporters of this initiative include the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) parties (both centre-right), the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).[15][8][19][20]

A poll taken by German public broadcaster ARD found that 65% of those surveyed favoured immediate elections.[20]

On 8 November, the Federal Returning Officer responsible for organising the election raised concerns about an election date in January, deeming it administratively difficult to organise the election by then, because of the Christmas break. The left-wing opposition party Die Linke also supported the chancellor in his push for a later election date.[21]

On 10 November, Scholz showed himself open to moving his vote of confidence to before the Christmas break, declaring he would orient himself to a schedule by SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich and opposition leader Friedrich Merz (CDU).[22] On 12 November a compromise was reached between the SPD and the CDU/CSU for the election to be held on 23 February 2025.[3]

Cooperation with CDU

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Opposition leader Friedrich Merz (CDU) met with President Steinmeier on 7 November to discuss the situation.[20] Scholz announced that he would ask Merz for support in passing the budget and boosting military spending.[23]

References

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  1. ^ "Kanzler Scholz entlässt Finanzminister Lindner" [Chancellor Scholz dismisses Finance Minister Lindner]. Tagesschau (in German). Retrieved 6 November 2024.
  2. ^ "Wie es zu Neuwahlen kommen könnte" [How New Elections Could Occur]. Tagesschau (in German). Retrieved 6 November 2024.
  3. ^ a b tagesschau.de. "Einigung auf Neuwahl des Bundestags am 23. Februar". tagesschau.de (in German). Retrieved 12 November 2024.
  4. ^ a b "Kanzler Scholz will im Januar Vertrauensfrage stellen" [Chancellor Scholz Wants Motion of Confidence in January]. Tagesschau (in German). Retrieved 6 November 2024.
  5. ^ Tanno, Sophie (7 November 2024). "Germany's normally stable government has collapsed. Here's why". CNN. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  6. ^ a b c d e Kinkartz, Sabine (6 November 2024). "Germany's coalition government falls apart — how it happened". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  7. ^ Chazan, Guy (6 November 2024). "German chancellor Olaf Scholz sacks his finance minister". Financial Times. Retrieved 6 November 2024.
  8. ^ a b McGuinness, Damien (7 November 2024). "Germany engulfed by political crisis as Scholz coalition falls apart". BBC. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  9. ^ "Germany: Thuringia and Saxony elections propel far-right AfD – DW – 09/02/2024". dw.com. Retrieved 12 November 2024.
  10. ^ "German elections: Far right wins big — results in numbers – DW – 09/01/2024". dw.com. Retrieved 12 November 2024.
  11. ^ a b c Kinkartz, Sabine (4 November 2024). "German government descends into crisis mode". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  12. ^ Medick, Veit [de], Rosenkranz, Jan (1 November 2024). "Lindner konfrontiert Koalition mit neuem Grundsatzpapier" [Lindner Confronts Coalition with New Policy Paper]. Capital (in German). Retrieved 6 November 2024.
  13. ^ "Lindner fordert in Grundsatzpapier Kehrtwende in der Wirtschaftspolitik" [In Policy Paper, Lindner Calls for U-Turn in Economic Policy]. Tagesschau (in German). 1 November 2024. Retrieved 6 November 2024.
  14. ^ Clinch, Matt (6 November 2024). "Germany's ruling coalition collapses as Chancellor Scholz fires finance minister". CNBC. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  15. ^ a b "Allemagne: l'opposition réclame un vote de confiance autour du chancelier Scholz dès la semaine prochaine" [Germany: The opposition demands a vote of confidence in Chancellor Scholz from the coming week]. RFI (in French). Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  16. ^ "FDP-Minister ziehen sich aus Ampel zurück" [FDP Ministers Withdraw from Coalition]. Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen. AFP. 7 November 2024. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  17. ^ "Volker Wissing tritt aus der FDP aus und bleibt Verkehrsminister". Der Spiegel (in German). 7 November 2024. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  18. ^ "Website gekapert: Rächt sich so die FDP am Verräter Volker Wissing?".
  19. ^ "Nach Ampel-Aus: Opposition fordert sofortige Vertrauensfrage". tagesschau.de (in German). Retrieved 7 November 2024.
  20. ^ a b c "German opposition wants confidence vote now". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  21. ^ "x.com".
  22. ^ Völkner, Paula (11 November 2024). "Scholz bei Miosga zum Ampel-Aus: Vertrauensfrage "vor Weihnachten" möglich – Neuwahlen rücken näher". FR.de. Frankfurter Rundschau. Retrieved 11 November 2024.
  23. ^ "Germany faces snap election as Scholz's coalition crumbles". Reuters. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
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